Welcome to another week of the Talk to the Palm mailbag. As usually, several of the inquiries I acquire are asking me to analyze a single team in a vacuum, as if their final results are the only ones that matter. That will pretty much never perform, but specially more than a month from Choice Sunday.
Here are this week’s best inquiries.
Q: If there’s a bid-stealer in the Atlantic 10 tourney, what takes place to VCU? Out, proper? — @UD_engr88
A: The concept that a bid-stealer steals a bid from its own conference is not a thing. That does not imply it can not happen, but it is also not a consideration. The team that gets its bid stolen will be apparent — it will be the No. 1 seed in the NIT. As it stands now, VCU is amongst the pile of teams that would be close sufficient to the reduce line as to be the 1 that gets its bid stolen, regardless of which conference gives the bid stealer.
Q: Do you have a guess at the most losses a team can have this season and still get an at big? — @TheRoyalePain
A: The record is 15, which has happened every of the last two seasons. Nevertheless, that is trivia. A far better indicator of at-massive eligibility is the quantity of games above .500. In reality, that is the best indicator.
Only a single team in the 26 seasons I have been undertaking bracket projections has received an at-large bid that was fewer than four games above .500. That was Georgia in 2001, which was 16-14. No group compares to that one. The Bulldogs played 27 of its 30 games against teams that we would now say were in Quadrants 1 and 2. Nobody plays schedules like that. In each of the last two seasons, a 19-15 team has created the tournament. I count on we will see that once again this season. We may possibly even see a Huge Ten group sneak in at 18-15. I do not think any individual will play sufficient games to post a great adequate record with 16 losses.
Q: With only 1 road win, what is the genuine story with @RutgersMBB chances? — @nuccim
A: That is a problem. The selection committee does like to see teams win away from home considering that no one plays tournament games on their property floors. Only 1 group has received an at-huge bid with fewer than three wins away from residence (road or neutral) in my time undertaking brackets. That was Illinois in 1994, my very first year of bracket projections. Each and every other group has had at least three. Rutgers has four difficult road games left and the conference tournament, so they can nevertheless get the count up.
Q: How protected is Saint Mary’s? Need another win more than BYU in tourney? No losses except to Zags? — @gogaels
A: This is a query comparable to the ones I was talking about in the opening paragraph, but it is sufficiently vague enough to be answerable.
Saint Mary’s is not protected. Not at all. The Gaels may get in if they win the games against everybody except BYU and Gonzaga. They might beat BYU once again and get left out anyway. Beating Gonzaga is the only factor that brings any level of comfort at all, and that is only if they do not screw up some other game along the way. My tips is to just win the WCC Tournament and eliminate the doubt.