The Mets may be an even more valuable franchise after this season. One projection system has them winning the NL East for the first time in five years.
Baseball Prospectus came out with its annual PECOTA projections on Tuesday and the Mets were atop the NL East, winning 88 games, a game ahead of the Nationals and five in front of the Braves. The typically conservative win projections had the Reds winning the NL Central with 86 wins and Dodgers running away with the NL West with an MLB-best 103 wins. The Yankees win the AL West with 99 wins, the Twins claim the AL Central for a second straight year and the Astros again win the AL West.
The Mets are given a 75% playoff projection, which is only behind the Dodgers in the National League. Los Angeles highlighted their offseason by acquiring Mookie Betts from the Red Sox, while the Mets’ hopes are pinned on a stout rotation and a revitalized bullpen.
Below is how PECOTA explains its projections:
“Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not ‘pick’ a team to ‘win’ any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.”